North American Freight Market Update: Thanksgiving Week & Year-End View (Nov 24–Dec 1, 2025)

1) Executive Summary: A Market Defined by Contradictions

• A Market Defined by Contradiction:
  The U.S. freight market is defined by a structural paradox: a persistent contraction in freight demand, confirmed by a 7.8% year-over-year decline in the October Cass Freight Index, is colliding with an exogenous capacity squeeze. This disconnect is driven primarily by new federal regulations restricting non-domiciled CDL holders, which is removing drivers from the market and establishing a higher cost floor for carriers.
• Acute Pressure on Refrigerated Capacity:
  The post-Thanksgiving week places immense strain on the temperature-controlled sector. The need to move holiday perishables, combined with protect-from-freeze requirements, has pushed reefer tender rejection rates above 15%. Capacity is exceptionally tight in the Pacific Northwest and along Southwest border zones due to ongoing harvest activity.
• Last-Mile Surge Amid Truckload Lull:
  While the broader truckload market remains subdued due to shippers drawing down on front-loaded inventories, the parcel and last-mile networks are bracing for peak strain from the Black Friday/Cyber Monday e-commerce surge. U.S. package volume is projected to increase by 5% year-over-year during this period.
• Strategic Imperative to Secure 2026 Rates:
  The current spread between spot and contract pricing, hovering around $0.50 per mile, presents a critical, near-term opportunity. Shippers are advised to leverage this window to lock in long-term capacity now. The current spot-to-contract spread is an anomaly driven by regulatory friction, not market fundamentals, and is likely to narrow rapidly and without warning once inventory normalization begins.

2) Thanksgiving Week Recap: A Holiday Squeeze on Capacity

Thanksgiving week serves as an annual stress test for the U.S. freight network, a period where the intense demands of seasonal food distribution collide with the initial surge of holiday retail logistics in a compressed timeframe. Trucking companies and third-party logistics providers must balance warehouse congestion, driver availability, and strict delivery schedules to manage the dual pressures of perishable goods and early Black Friday shipments.

In the week leading up to the holiday (ending November 21), market indicators pointed to a significant tightening of capacity. Total load activity rose by 12% as shippers finalized pre-holiday movements. This demand pushed broker-posted spot rates for dry van, refrigerated, and flatbed equipment to their highest levels in several months. Dry van spot rates reached a peak not seen since July, while refrigerated rates were the strongest since the week before Labor Day.

The capacity crunch was most acute in the refrigerated sector. A potent combination of holiday perishables, shipments requiring protection from freezing weather, and early e-commerce fulfillment for items like meal kits drove reefer tender rejection rates above 15%. Capacity was exceptionally tight in key agricultural regions, including the Pacific Northwest (for apples and pears) and along Southwest border zones like Nogales, AZ, and McAllen, TX, due to ongoing fall harvest activity.

These regional constraints in high-value reefer markets act as a leading indicator, demonstrating how quickly capacity can evaporate and rates can spike when specific demand drivers emerge—a pattern likely to be replicated in the dry van sector once inventory restocking begins. These holiday-specific pressures temporarily mask the broader, underlying market conditions that will define the remainder of the year.

3) Current Market Snapshot: Weak Demand, Firming Rates

The current market is defined by a fundamental paradox: a structural goods recession with contracting freight volumes is colliding with an exogenous (non-market-driven) capacity shock. This has created a fragile and counterintuitive environment where the traditional relationship between demand and pricing has become decoupled, driven more by supply-side constraints than by organic volume growth.

National freight demand remains soft, with shipment counts continuing a sustained contraction. The Cass Freight Index for October confirmed this trend, reporting a 7.8% year-over-year decline in shipment activity. This weakness is contrasted by a significant tightening of supply. The market has been experiencing sustained capacity attrition for months, with carrier revocations consistently outpacing new entrants. A new federal rule restricting non-domiciled Commercial Driver’s Licenses (CDLs) is now acting as a powerful accelerant, forcing a structural re-pricing of risk by insurers and lenders and accelerating the removal of drivers from the available pool.

This supply-side pressure is causing spot rates to firm marginally despite the volume declines. For example, October’s national average spot van rate rose to $2.07 per mile. This has maintained a significant spread of approximately $0.50 per mile between spot and contract pricing, giving shippers continued leverage in contract negotiations but signaling a rising cost floor. This dynamic creates an artificial market stability that is highly susceptible to shocks, increasing the risk of a sudden and severe rate spike when demand returns.

4) Near-Term Outlook: The Post-Holiday Pivot to Final Mile

In the week immediately following Thanksgiving, the freight market’s focus pivots from broad, long-haul truckload movements to the intense operational pressures of the Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) e-commerce surge. While upstream freight demand slows, the last-mile and parcel networks face their annual peak as they manage a massive influx of online orders.

The demands on these final-mile networks are significant. U.S. package volume is projected to increase by 5% year-over-year during the 2025 peak season. The nation’s largest parcel carriers are employing divergent strategies to manage this volume. FedEx and Amazon are expected to absorb most of the growth, with analysts projecting their volumes will increase by 5% to 8%. In contrast, UPS and the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) volumes are projected to remain flat, reflecting a strategic shift by UPS to prioritize higher-margin freight over pure volume as part of its “efficiency reimagined” program.

This e-commerce surge will have a limited immediate impact on the broader truckload market. Demand for trunk-haul dry van and flatbed capacity will likely remain subdued, as shippers are relying heavily on inventories that were front-loaded earlier in the year to avoid tariff impacts and in response to weak consumer demand. With the BFCM fulfillment rush underway, the focus now shifts to navigating the final weeks of the quarter and planning for the year ahead.

5) Rest-of-Year View & Planning Tips

December Market Forecast

The traditional holiday “peak season” for truckload freight is expected to be virtually non-existent this year. This is a direct consequence of shippers’ heavy reliance on inventory that was imported and positioned earlier in the year to reduce exposure to tariffs and hedge against weak consumer demand. This front-loading of goods has muted the need for significant fourth-quarter replenishment.

As a key indicator of this trend, the National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a 14% to 17% year-over-year decline in U.S. import volumes for December, confirming that soft demand is likely to persist through the end of the year. This heavy front-loading creates a “bullwhip effect in reverse,” where lean Q4 replenishment cycles leave supply chains vulnerable. Should consumer demand rebound faster than expected in Q1 2026, the market could face a sudden and severe capacity shortage as shippers scramble to restock.

Key Risks & Watch Items

• Regulatory Capacity Attrition:
  The new federal rule restricting non-domiciled CDLs is the most significant structural risk to capacity. Under the new regulations, only holders of specific visa types (H-2A, H-2B, E-2) remain eligible. The rule is expected to force an estimated 194,000 drivers from the industry over the next two years as their licenses expire. This exit is being accelerated as financial and insurance partners proactively deny coverage to carriers employing non-compliant drivers, effectively removing trucks from the road ahead of official deadlines.
• Delayed Inventory Normalization:
  A significant rebound in freight demand is contingent on the normalization of business inventories. Analysts do not expect this restocking cycle to begin until the first quarter of 2026. Consequently, inventory-to-sales ratios will be the most critical leading indicator to monitor for signs of a potential volume recovery.
• Macroeconomic Headwinds:
  Broader economic pressures continue to suppress overall freight demand. These include an ongoing structural goods recession, frozen housing markets, and weak consumer confidence, which are fundamentally shifting spending away from physical goods.
• Winter Weather Disruptions:
  As December progresses, the potential for significant winter weather events increases. While unpredictable, these events can create temporary but severe regional capacity disruptions, leading to sharp, localized spikes in spot rates.

Actionable Guidance for Shippers & Brokers

• Secure Contract Rates:
  Shippers should leverage the current ~$0.50 per mile spread between spot and contract rates to lock in long-term capacity now. The current spot-to-contract spread is an anomaly driven by regulatory friction, not market fundamentals, and is likely to narrow rapidly and without warning once inventory normalization begins.
• Prioritize Carrier Compliance:
  Vetting all trucking partners for full compliance with the new CDL regulations has become a mandatory risk-management activity. Ensuring carriers meet these standards is essential to avoid service disruptions and protect against supply chain failures as enforcement ramps up.
• Manage Customer Expectations:
  With parcel carriers overstretched during the peak season, service variability is high. It is advisable to add buffer days to shipping timeframes and communicate proactively with customers about potential delays to maintain trust and satisfaction.
• Offer Scheduling Flexibility:
  In tight capacity markets, providing flexibility on pickup and delivery windows can be a powerful tool. This can help secure capacity on challenging lanes and provides an alternative to paying premium spot charges for rigid appointment times.

6) How MegaCorp Logistics Can Help

If you’d like lane-specific guidance, a customer-facing version tailored to a particular vertical, or help pressure-testing your 2026 routing guide strategy, your MegaCorp Logistics team is here to help.

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